Thursday, August 11, 2016

ASA's Prediction 2016 Contest

The American Statistical Association has a challenge for stats-savvy students: predict* the next U.S. president!

Prediction* 2016 is a contest for high school and undergraduate college students to predict* the winner of the U.S. presidential election using statistical methods. Winners will receive a variety of prizes and perks, including exposure to the nation’s leading statisticians and data scientists.

The details:

One winner will be chosen among high school contestants and one among college contestants. Those with the most accurate predictions* developed with sound statistical methods will win the contest.

Each winning entry will receive a $200 cash prize, and all members of the winning group will receive a complementary ASA membership and a 2016 Election Prediction* t-shirt, plus the opportunity to be featured in various publications. Second and third place winners also will be recognized.

Contestants must:
  • Predict* the winning presidential candidate in each state and the District of Columbia.
  • Predict* the final percentage (rounded to the tenths place—e.g., 50.4%) of the popular vote for each major candidate.
  • Include a 200-300 word description of methods for each result to demonstrate your work is original and statistical concepts were used.
  • Submit an entry as an individual or as a group (groups can be made up of high school students or college students, but not both).
Additional Rules for College Students
  • Predict* the total number of votes cast.
  • Predict* how five demographic groups (female, male, African American, Hispanic and White voters) will vote for the two major party candidates. Note: this part of the contest is optional, and winners of each category will receive honorable mentions. 

October 1, 2016 -- Online submission form will be available on
October 24, 2016 at 5pm -- Deadline for submitting predictions*.
October 27, 2016 -- ASA announces which candidate wins in the student predictions*.
November 9, 2016 (the day after Election Day) -- ASA announces contest winners.

More information, including contest rules, requirements, and the mathy calculations for entrant scores, can be found on ASA's This is Statistics website:

* Please note that the use of the term 'predict' is not my choosing. In fact, it's a bit of a statistical pet peeve of mine.

(Graphics courtesy of the American Statistical Association.)

No comments:

Post a Comment